![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Positive phases correspond to windy, mild and wet conditions, while negative phases relate to still, cold and dry weather, which means we can obtain some indication of how likely a windy winter is. The main influence on European winter weather is the North Atlantic Oscillation. “The most likely scenario as we head into 2023 is for the risk of high-pressure to decrease, and a return to more unsettled conditions with wet, windy and mild spells possible,” he said. Milder conditions, however, are likely to take over once more into 2023, and Davies said the chances of a very cold winter, comparable to 2009-10, were low this winter. Prof Paul Davies, Met Office fellow (meteorology) and chief meteorologist, predicts a mild late autumn and early winter, with periods of wet, windy weather predominantly in the north and west.īut the impact on energy bills may not last, because once winter sets in as November turns to December, there could be a cold snap, with the threat of snow and ice, particularly in the north. The latest long-term Met Office forecast, therefore, will be welcome news for households across the UK. “In monetary terms, based on the UK October gas price cap (10.3p a kWh), this equates to about £1bn for each 1C UK temperature anomaly … the numbers are pretty big, and the stakes are pretty high.” “For example, a winter with a 1C temperature anomaly results in roughly a daily average gas demand anomaly of 100 GWh over a winter season. “In the UK, winter temperatures have a strong impact on the demand for gas and electricity,” he said.
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